6 Foods That Will Likely Be Impacted By the New Tariffs

It can be difficult to keep track of all the tariffs that President Donald Trump has raised and lowered over the past few weeks, but here’s what you should know: most of these tariffs have been scaled down to 10% for now, while tariffs against China have been raised to 125%.

Trump made this announcement in a post on Truth Social following his earlier announcement of a variety of tariffs against just about every country the U.S. regularly trades with. The reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, which included items such as a 46% tariff against Vietnam and a 20% tariff against the European Union, have now been delayed for 90 days. A 10% tariff remains in place, which may still have an impact on your grocery bill.

The wide-sweeping 10% tariff is poised to have some effect on many consumer goods sold in the U.S. And if the original higher rates go back into effect, several foods that Americans buy every day will likely soon see a sharp price increase. That’s because the tariffs affect not just edible products, but other goods involved in our food production, including fertilizers, machinery used in production and packaging materials like paper and aluminum.

While ramping up domestic production to offset the effects is possible, it would take years to produce quantities that match the bulk imports needed to meet current consumer demands. For some food groups, it could be nearly impossible.

“Theoretically, we can grow a lot more produce than we do, but it’s complicated,” says Toni Farmer, adjunct professor at the University of Pennsylvania and host of The Goal is to Become a Gardener, explaining that climate, ecosystems, workforce and distribution are just a few of the major challenges that stand in the way. “We can grow a small amount of crops [like bananas, coffee, olive oil, chocolate and spices], but nowhere near enough to support U.S. demand. Hawaii affords us the closest we can get to the climate we need for some of this [produce], but they have their limits.”

Additionally, Farmer says that because the U.S. has very few reserves of potash, a salt that is key for fertilization and farming, prices are increasing. Trump recently lowered the tariff on potash from Canada from 25% to 10%, and importers can also look to import some potash from Russia, which currently faces no tariffs.

With a domestic solution for most of the affected goods out of reach for now, it’s better to brace for the effects ahead by learning what foods are most likely to be impacted by the tariffs and developing a plan that allows you to make the most of your food budget. Here’s an overview of some of the foods that might see an increase.

Tropical Produce

Fortunately, the tariffs against Canada and Mexico include an exception that allows produce to be traded tariff-free for now. Those two countries are the largest exporters of produce to the U.S., but the remaining 10% tariff on other countries will still have an effect—especially on tropical fruit.

In her recent Instagram post, Farmer noted that tropical fruit, including banana, pineapple and coconut, will see price increases. These foods are not shelf-stable, so there’s no stockpile of them waiting to be put on shelves. They also can’t be grown in mass quantities domestically. The U.S. currently imports more than 40% of its bananas from Guatemala, which now faces a 10% reciprocal tariff.

Seafood

Chile and Vietnam supply the U.S. with a substantial amount of fresh and frozen fish. Both countries currently face a 10% tariff, though Vietnam was initially hit with a tariff of 46%. This means that fish may see a jump in price over the coming weeks. Some seafood is imported more heavily than others, of course, and in 2022, the U.S. mostly imported shrimp, salmon, crab and lobster.

China, which now faces a 125% tariff, is the seventh largest importer of fish and shellfish to the U.S. In 2023, the country supplied the U.S. with about $980 million worth of fish fillets and mince. This fish wasn’t necessarily caught in China, but it was processed there. It’s possible, for example, to purchase Alaskan cod that is also a product of China, since some fish is brought there to be frozen, processed into fillets and sold back in the U.S.

Coffee

According to Farmer, coffee is already in jeopardy due to climate change and its effects on the ecosystems necessary to grow the crop. But more immediately, java enjoyers may see price increases due to the 10% tariffs imposed on Brazil and Columbia—two of the countries that supply the U.S. with a majority of its stock. Switzerland is also a major exporter of coffee, particularly the instant variety.

Olive Oil

The U.S. purchases olive oil in massive bulk amounts from countries within the E.U., including the world’s largest producers: Spain, Italy and Greece. Italy and Spain are the two biggest sources of imported olive oil in the U.S. (Those countries now face a 10% tariff, which Trump decreased from the initial 20% rate.) 

The U.S. produces only 2% of the olive oil that it consumes, which means scaling domestic production up would be a lengthy process, if it were even possible. As of 2023, the third largest source of olive oil imports to the U.S. was Tunisia, which now faces a 10% tariff that was previously levied at 28%.

Chocolate

With a new 10% tariff (previously 21%) on imports from Côte d’Ivoire, cocoa products like cocoa beans, paste, butter, powder and chocolate are expected to increase in price. Ghana follows closely behind Canada, Mexico and Côte d’Ivoire in exports of total cocoa products to the U.S. and also faces a mandated 10% tariff.

Nuts

Farmer says that nuts, including cashews, pecans and macadamia, may be affected by tariffs depending on where they are sourced. Vietnam, for example, is a top exporter of cashews to the U.S. Should Vietnam not reach a trade agreement with the U.S. by July 8, those cashews will face a 46% tariff.

And while macadamia nuts are greatly produced domestically, the U.S. does import a substantial amount from Australia, which also faces a 10% tariff.

The Bottom Line

The tariffs originally announced on April 2 have been delayed for 90 days and reduced to 10% in the meantime, though the tariffs against China remain at 125%. Unlike the tariffs against Canada and Mexico, these tariffs do not make an exception for foodstuffs, which means they are more likely to affect your grocery bill. Staying aware of items that may go up in cost, like nuts, seafood, coffee, chocolate products and olive oil, can help you make wise decisions about how to spend your money at the store.